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ValkenarThu 04-Jan-07 11:59 AM
Member since 04th Mar 2003
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#15827, "RE: Agreed to your point. But"


          

>and play better. The thing is, what is this study determining
>as a cluster? A single game or a single season?

My impression was that it's shot by shot. So obviously a player might do better from one season to another. But one shot is no more or less likely to hit than the one immediately preceeding it, statistically. Obviously in the real world something or other may affect a shot. A minor hand injury, for example.

>I don't think its a case of 'hot hands', but human
>beings are affected by a large number of variables so its only
>natural to assume the stats they produce are non-random.

Interestingly, if you add enough variables the system becomes chaotic and the results become as unpredictable as the weather. It's not quite accurate to say that it's random (I don't think... could be wrong), but chaos and randomness are often indistinguishable.

  

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HOT TopicThe "Hot Hand", and interpreting logs. [View all] , Valguarnera, Wed 03-Jan-07 04:26 PM
Reply Good post, Sandello, 04-Jan-07 11:21 PM, #26
Reply Nice post:, Tac, 04-Jan-07 10:27 AM, #16
Reply Agreed to your point. But "hot hands"?, TheDude, 03-Jan-07 11:26 PM, #5
Reply RE: Agreed to your point. But, Valguarnera, 04-Jan-07 12:24 AM, #7
     Reply RE: Agreed to your point. But, Isildur, 04-Jan-07 02:32 AM, #9
     Reply RE: Agreed to your point. But, Eskelian, 04-Jan-07 06:59 AM, #11
     Reply RE: Agreed to your point. But, Valkenar, 04-Jan-07 11:59 AM #19
          Reply RE: Agreed to your point. But, Valguarnera, 04-Jan-07 01:14 PM, #21
               Reply RE: Agreed to your point. But, Eskelian, 04-Jan-07 02:40 PM, #23
     Reply RE: Agreed to your point. But, Valguarnera, 04-Jan-07 09:15 AM, #13
          Reply Some clutch numbers:, TheDude, 04-Jan-07 10:14 PM, #25
     Reply Statistics vs. scope and integrals, TheDude, 04-Jan-07 04:12 AM, #10
Reply Some remarks, Dwoggurd, 03-Jan-07 07:22 PM, #1
     Reply RE: Some remarks, Valguarnera, 03-Jan-07 07:53 PM, #2
     Reply There is more than just probability, Dwoggurd, 03-Jan-07 08:37 PM, #3
          Reply If you didn't, I suggest reading the cited article(s)....., Tac, 03-Jan-07 10:54 PM, #4
          Reply Conditional probability:, Valguarnera, 03-Jan-07 11:50 PM, #6
               Reply Invalid application, Dwoggurd, 04-Jan-07 08:18 AM, #12
                    Reply RE: Invalid example, Tac, 04-Jan-07 09:40 AM, #15
                    Reply RE: Invalid application, Marcus_, 04-Jan-07 10:31 AM, #17
     Reply RE: Whitecloaks, vargal, 04-Jan-07 12:57 AM, #8
     Reply Muscle Memory, Chuntog, 04-Jan-07 09:37 AM, #14
          Reply Quick note on pros vs. amateurs:, Valguarnera, 04-Jan-07 11:08 AM, #18
               Reply That's harsh, Chuntog, 04-Jan-07 01:03 PM, #20
                    Reply Blind Side!, Valguarnera, 04-Jan-07 01:41 PM, #22
                         Reply RE: Blind Side!, Straklaw, 04-Jan-07 04:47 PM, #24
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