Subject: "There is more than just probability" Previous topic | Next topic
Printer-friendly copy Email this topic to a friend CF Website
Top General Discussions Gameplay Topic #15806
Show all folders

DwoggurdWed 03-Jan-07 08:37 PM
Member since 20th Jan 2004
668 posts
Click to send email to this author Click to send private message to this author Click to add this author to your buddy list
#15810, "There is more than just probability"


          

in the "hot hand" phenomenom.

I can't speak about baseball, but in basketball hitting streaks exists.
I don't know exactly what your professor or the sad-ass intern studied, but I believe they mistaken because they simply can't estimate all factors (nobody can). And very likely they replaced a reason with a consequence.

Even simply hit rate is different for various players.
It can't be said that better players have more/longer hitting streaks because their average hit rate is higher. In reality, their average hit rate is higher because they have those hitting streaks

Also, when a player and his team feels that he is "hot handed" in a certain game he takes more chances. Trying hard shots, leads the game, etc. Under "normal" circumstances he wouldn't even try to throw from the center but being "hot handed" he may try.
Keep in mind, that 1 basket out of 2 is easier than 10 out of 20 because defenders (as you also noticed) will pay additional attention to you and, in general, it is harder to create 20 shot-attempt situations for yourself than just two. In practice, that means you will take more risks and shoot from not-so-good-positions more often.

  

Alert | IP Printer Friendly copy | Reply | Reply with quote

HOT TopicThe "Hot Hand", and interpreting logs. [View all] , Valguarnera, Wed 03-Jan-07 04:26 PM
Reply Good post, Sandello, 04-Jan-07 11:21 PM, #26
Reply Nice post:, Tac, 04-Jan-07 10:27 AM, #16
Reply Agreed to your point. But "hot hands"?, TheDude, 03-Jan-07 11:26 PM, #5
Reply RE: Agreed to your point. But, Valguarnera, 04-Jan-07 12:24 AM, #7
     Reply RE: Agreed to your point. But, Isildur, 04-Jan-07 02:32 AM, #9
     Reply RE: Agreed to your point. But, Eskelian, 04-Jan-07 06:59 AM, #11
     Reply RE: Agreed to your point. But, Valkenar, 04-Jan-07 11:59 AM, #19
          Reply RE: Agreed to your point. But, Valguarnera, 04-Jan-07 01:14 PM, #21
               Reply RE: Agreed to your point. But, Eskelian, 04-Jan-07 02:40 PM, #23
     Reply RE: Agreed to your point. But, Valguarnera, 04-Jan-07 09:15 AM, #13
          Reply Some clutch numbers:, TheDude, 04-Jan-07 10:14 PM, #25
     Reply Statistics vs. scope and integrals, TheDude, 04-Jan-07 04:12 AM, #10
Reply Some remarks, Dwoggurd, 03-Jan-07 07:22 PM, #1
     Reply RE: Some remarks, Valguarnera, 03-Jan-07 07:53 PM, #2
     Reply There is more than just probability, Dwoggurd, 03-Jan-07 08:37 PM #3
          Reply If you didn't, I suggest reading the cited article(s)....., Tac, 03-Jan-07 10:54 PM, #4
          Reply Conditional probability:, Valguarnera, 03-Jan-07 11:50 PM, #6
               Reply Invalid application, Dwoggurd, 04-Jan-07 08:18 AM, #12
                    Reply RE: Invalid example, Tac, 04-Jan-07 09:40 AM, #15
                    Reply RE: Invalid application, Marcus_, 04-Jan-07 10:31 AM, #17
     Reply RE: Whitecloaks, vargal, 04-Jan-07 12:57 AM, #8
     Reply Muscle Memory, Chuntog, 04-Jan-07 09:37 AM, #14
          Reply Quick note on pros vs. amateurs:, Valguarnera, 04-Jan-07 11:08 AM, #18
               Reply That's harsh, Chuntog, 04-Jan-07 01:03 PM, #20
                    Reply Blind Side!, Valguarnera, 04-Jan-07 01:41 PM, #22
                         Reply RE: Blind Side!, Straklaw, 04-Jan-07 04:47 PM, #24
Top General Discussions Gameplay Topic #15806 Previous topic | Next topic