I agree the effects are probably very subtle. The books I've read on this all dealt with professional athletes, since accurate statistics and opinion polls were available. So we're only talking about people who have probably taken over a million shots or swings in their life. If they were easily rattled, or had serious consistency problems, they wouldn't be professional athletes.

Gould talks about this in light of the disappearance of the .400 hitter in Full House. Basically, the worst guy in MLB used to be some shlub (and probably on the Phillies). Nowadays, the worst guy in MLB is an amazing athlete who has the misfortune of being around roughly 1,000 slightly more amazing athletes (and probably is still on the Phillies). As human performance approaches its limits like that, everyone loses the ability to "take over" a game, and trends like "clutch hitting" or "hot hand" wash out.

valguarnera@carrionfields.com