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There are a lot of factors to anyone being promoted in tribunal. In terms of becoming provincial, my belief is that all that is up to the current Provost. The leader of the cabal should have some real ability to choose who his lieutenants are. While I generally have my own views, you can make your own choices (for better or worse).
In terms of the positions beyond that, Vindicators & Justiciars, I do consider the opinions of the Provost, but I also have certain things I'm looking for.
Vindicators are focused on putting down the criminals, the hammer of the law if you will. As such, you generally want to see someone who has gotten a fair number of criminal kills or done a lot to drive criminals away, or other sorts of ways which evidence some thought there. There is no requirement that you have a particularly good pk ratio, however. While that may help, I firmly believe in letting all sorts have a chance.
Justiciars, contrastingly, are focused on investigation. You'd want to see someone who worked on figuring out who was guilty, who spends a lot of time dealing with a crime instead of just going "sorry, didn't hear a yell." You'd also want them to be generally right in there investigations. In this instance as well, considerations do not deal with pk ratio or game knowledge per se.
Both these positions, of course, require a showing of dedication--I keep an eye on hours played, hours spent doing their job (and not just hitting up the pit before running out to start trying to kill). General leadership ability is also a consideration, which is why most vindicators/justiciars spend at least sometime as provincial magistrates before getting upped again.
Vindicators are generally seen as more popular than justiciars, probably because vindicators get more obviously "good pk powers", and so promotion to justiciar is more rare. If you see someone with the right drive, dedication, and ideas, they'll generally get promoted, though this process is generally not that quick, you will need to put in a goodly amount of tribunal time.
Speaking of justiciars, I think those who would make good justiciars are also the ones who make good Provosts due to the attention to detail & so on, and that may explain why there are fewer--they often get snatched up into the Provost position as oppossed to Justiciar.
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