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wlnMon 20-Jun-16 03:58 AM
Member since 11th Jun 2016
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#63896, "Math of becoming a mummy"


          

Well, I did some calculations. This is not critics or something, it's just a food for thought for everyone who enjoy to play necromacers like I do.

We know that GOOD chances for becoming a mummy are around somewhere 85%. To maximize your chances, you have to spend at least 270 hours (according to Sam's (?) thread on Dio's) and you have to perfect all spells that is related to the creation of undeads (armor of living bone, animate dead, reanimate, wall of putrid flesh, lesser golem, greater undead, manifest shadow, possibly corpse thrall, graft and embalm skill). So, you'll have to invest A LOT of time and effort to get your chances to 85%.

From the other hand, if you have nothing practiced and you are below 100 hours, your base chance is 33 (see Dragguul's timeline on PBF, I bought his PBF just to see how much is it).

In case 1, you play for about 3 months to maximize your chances (of course if you aren't me, I can burn down 200 hours in a month). 3 months to have 85% chances.

Case 2: you powerrank to 47 and go for the quest. In 3 months, you can do about 6 runs (2 weeks to 47 for necro is easy). Here are your chances (rounded):

Run 1 = 33%
Run 2 = 55%
Run 3 = 70%
Run 4 = 80%
Run 5 = 86%
Run 6 = 91%
Run 7 = 93%
Run 8 = 96%
Run 9 = 97,2%

So, by MY only opinion, and IF my calculation is correct, it's not worth to waste 270 hours to die on the becoming (which IS disappointing and discouraging, trust me). For me, it's way better to burn a character and in case of failure reroll - that way I won't lose too much time and still fail (270!!!!!! hours is a lot, you can create a successful startup in that time).

I may be wrong here, though. Again, I repeat It's not a call to action, just my thoughts on that matter.

  

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Reply Just go wight , laxman, 20-Jun-16 08:55 PM, #9
Reply Nope, wln, 21-Jun-16 02:55 AM, #11
Reply ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (nt), Umiron, 20-Jun-16 07:32 PM, #7
Reply Okay that was funny. Welcome back. n/t, Lhydia, 20-Jun-16 07:49 PM, #8
Reply Awesome lol. , amazingdonnie, 21-Jun-16 12:21 AM, #10
Reply RE: Math of becoming a mummy, incognito, 20-Jun-16 04:57 PM, #6
Reply Your assumptions are wrong, Fuhlsang (Anonymous), 20-Jun-16 07:27 AM, #4
Reply Ouch!, wln, 20-Jun-16 07:27 AM, #5
Reply As PHD in math scince, Kstatida, 20-Jun-16 04:07 AM, #1
     Reply But they didn't teach you how to spell science. n/t, Lhydia, 20-Jun-16 06:00 AM, #2
          Reply You dare question Dr. Beront's expertise?, Kstatida, 20-Jun-16 07:09 AM, #3

laxmanMon 20-Jun-16 08:55 PM
Member since 18th Aug 2003
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#63917, "Just go wight "
In response to Reply #0


          

Against everyone the gap between wight and mummy is not much. You can't hide your undead and there is a couple of pieces of gear you can't use but you still will have all the stuff that make undead deadly.

  

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wlnTue 21-Jun-16 02:55 AM
Member since 11th Jun 2016
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#63919, "Nope"
In response to Reply #9


          

I had both, and there is a huge difference between mummy and wight. Wights are a pale shadows of the mummies, trust me. Though they are strong and have a lot of benefits, they have some issues that are critical for me. They are fun only in regards to RP, but as we already discovered in threads below, I suck at it

I do not encourage anyone to reroll necros until you get the mummy. I won't go this route either now, too, after that I have discovered so much fun on midranks. Earlier, I thought that CF begins on hero. Now, I think it begins a bit earlier, so powerranking to hero is not required now.

  

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UmironMon 20-Jun-16 07:32 PM
Member since 29th May 2017
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#63915, "¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (nt)"
In response to Reply #0


          

asd

  

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LhydiaMon 20-Jun-16 07:49 PM
Member since 04th Mar 2003
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#63916, "Okay that was funny. Welcome back. n/t"
In response to Reply #7


          

gr

  

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amazingdonnieTue 21-Jun-16 12:21 AM
Member since 19th Nov 2013
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#63918, "Awesome lol. "
In response to Reply #7


          

This should be your default forum reply

  

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incognitoMon 20-Jun-16 04:57 PM
Member since 04th Mar 2003
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#63913, "RE: Math of becoming a mummy"
In response to Reply #0


          

I think there's more to it than you realise.

For example, pk count may count. In some form to prevent cheesey kills.

  

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Fuhlsang (Anonymous)Mon 20-Jun-16 07:21 AM
Charter member
#63908, "Your assumptions are wrong"
In response to Reply #0
Edited on Mon 20-Jun-16 07:27 AM

          

Mon Sep 8 06:30:23 2014 at level 47 (67 hrs):
Base chance: 5, Roll: 28, Result: Death!

So what do I win for the lowest ever base chance with correct items? =)

  

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wlnMon 20-Jun-16 07:27 AM
Member since 11th Jun 2016
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#63909, "Ouch!"
In response to Reply #4


          

WHAT did he do to have THAT chance?

Dragguul was almost a newborn baby, and yet he had 33 chance. So, by MY calculation, if you spend just a little more than do nothing and race to 47, you'd still have more. Perhaps he didn't even practice any of his spells, I don't know.


BTW, to answer to Destuvius: I do not encourage anyone to go the second route. I just was curious of the math. Personally, I enjoyed midranks as a necro a lot, and I had and good fights, and interesting interactions there. So if you'll ask me, how would I go - I'd go in the mix of both. Power to 47 when I'd get bored of midranks (or if I'd become old-age again).

  

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KstatidaMon 20-Jun-16 04:07 AM
Member since 12th Feb 2015
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#63897, "As PHD in math scince"
In response to Reply #0


          

I can support the probability calculations. It is important to note though that mathematical expectation has physical meaning in a number of samples going to infinity, which is not the case.

So if you don't have infinite time to prove that running 3 necromancers in a row has a better probability of becoming a mummy, maximizing your first run chance to 85% would definitely be more efficient.

  

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LhydiaMon 20-Jun-16 06:00 AM
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#63906, "But they didn't teach you how to spell science. n/t"
In response to Reply #1


          

gr

  

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KstatidaMon 20-Jun-16 07:09 AM
Member since 12th Feb 2015
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#63907, "You dare question Dr. Beront's expertise?"
In response to Reply #2
Edited on Mon 20-Jun-16 07:09 AM

          

Repent and atone.

  

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