Seven years ago, based on my professional expertise, I said if something wasn't changed to open the doors to more new CFers we would see our numbers decline dramatically with no possibility for a bounce back. This statement was met with much argumentative hostility as were any suggestions as to how to right the course. Now, it's regarded as self evident.

Today, I'm going to make another prediction. I'm going to tell you how CF will die.

According to "Tipping Point" by Malcolm Gladwell, in 1986 there were 80,000 fax machines sold. That number rose gradually until 1989 where it reached the point that every business figured it made good sense to have a fax machine too. Fax machines tipped, and millions of machines were sold in a very, very short amount of time.

During the 1970s in the U.S Northeast black families began moving from the cities into the suburbs. Sociologists observed that black people moved into a neighborhood gradually until 20% of the homes became occupied by black folks. At that point the neighborhood tipped, the white people left and the neighborhoods became all black in very short order.

Like these examples, CF will fall at a tipping point. Based on our numbers, there is a good chance that tipping point will come soon.

Seven years ago we had eighty people on at peak times, give or take. Today? Thirty or Forty. It won't take another seven years to lose the last forty. Numbers will gradually drop to a point where the remaining players and immortals will look around and say, "You know, it's just not worth doing this anymore." At this point, the tipping point, they will all leave as one, big group. Our little, dysfunctional fantasy family will be gone.