>I'm not saying that the staff and players don't have good
>ideas, I'm saying that without the data I pointed to we have
>no objective means to predict the future playerbase size of CF
>or what the most significant factors in determining that size
>are.

You are right that with limited data there are limited predictions. I'm giving a very general prediction based on very general data. With better data I'll chart the trends and nail it down to what quarter of what year we'll (and I do mean we. I'm on this ship too) go down in.

This is not unlike predicting the rises and falls of local businesses in my area, which has become something of a novelty to my friends and staff. We'll eat at new restaurant and I'll look at the product, the staff, the management and the advertising and I'll say with near 100% accuracy if it will make it our not. I do this based on years of building businesses.

It's not at all unlike how you, Andy, can listen to a rock song and just know how to play it. You find the root chord. From that root you figure out the chord progression and once you know the progression you figure out the notes. Next thing you know, you can play that song. No sheet music required. Rock songs, like direct to consumer businesses, are all pretty much the same. Sometimes you don't need to hear a song but once to know it's G, Em, C, D, right? You don't need to see the music to know what it looks like. While this is a mystical power to the uninitiated, it's just something you learn based on hours and hours of playing music.*

>
>I think the odds of us finding a volunteer marketing genius
>that happens to like CF are small.

As far as I know, it's impossible. One suggestion would be to take someone smart and willing, don't bog them down with engineering and let them get a marketing education (think Good Will Hunting library card seen) and start trying stuff.

That's only 1/2 the puzzle. The other half is management and administration. There are some areas of weakness here as well. Our entire process of finding staff, managing staff and administrating the game needs an overhaul.

Someone has to design and
>implement ways to collect, analyze, and use the data we're
>talking about. Maybe that seems practical to you, but it
>doesn't to me.

To me it's so necessary that practicality doesn't even enter my mind. It's just something you have to do.


*I assume, based on listening to your music, that you possess this skill. In fact, a friend just sent me a copy of the Gratch song because I lost mine, which sent me to listening to my mp3 of "thinking about tomorrow". I think you're smart, talented and an A player on the staff, so don't take my oppositional commentary as a personal affront. Also, please don't look at my IP address and nuke my future Saraba follower.

EDITED: grammar and punctuation on one cup of coffee. ouch.