Valguarnera | Mon 17-Dec-07 08:22 PM |
Member since 04th Mar 2003
6904 posts
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#1624, "RE: Smoking vs. heart disease:"
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Edit: And how do you suggest that math isn't odd? 1/5th of the heart attacks were smokers. Roughly 1/5th of the population smokes. That doesn't sound very damning to me.
Your claim was that 20% of the heart attacks were "due to smoking". Not every heart attack that a smoker has is attributed to smoking. You figure out how many heart attacks smokers would have if smoking had no impact, and attribute the excess to the smoking.
Example, using made-up numbers: 1000 corpses. 800 from non-smokers, 200 from smokers.
Heart attack risk in non-smoker: 1/10. Heart attack risk in non-smoker: 1/4.
Heart attacks (non-smokers): 80. (1/10 of 800) Heart attacks (smokers, not smoking-related): 20. (1/10 of 200) Heart attacks (smokers, smoking-related): 30. (1/4 of 200, minus the expected baseline of 20.)
Total heart attacks: 130. Percentage of heart attacks due to smoking: 30/130: ~23%.
(The RL math is futher complicated by the fact that smokers might avoid heart attacks simply by dying to lung cancer or emphysema first. For example, if heroin caused prostate cancer, you might not see it, simply because heroin users don't often live long enough to die of prostate cancer.)
Not for nothing, but arguing that smoking doesn't shorten your lifespan is more than slightly odd. This isn't exactly a controversial subject among doctors. I don't get where you're going with this.
valguarnera@carrionfields.com
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For Death Claw and Valg
[View all] , Shadowmaster, Thu 29-Nov-07 09:20 AM
RE: For Death Claw and Valg,
Eskelian,
05-Dec-07 11:06 PM, #8
Quick note:,
Valguarnera,
06-Dec-07 08:04 AM, #9
RE: Quick note:,
Eskelian,
06-Dec-07 08:45 AM, #10
Its not just heart disease either.,
Eskelian,
06-Dec-07 09:12 AM, #11
RE: Quick note:,
Elerosse,
06-Dec-07 10:33 AM, #12
RE: Quick note:,
Eskelian,
06-Dec-07 11:38 AM, #13
RE: Quick note:,
Elerosse,
06-Dec-07 12:42 PM, #14
RE: Smoking vs. heart disease:,
Valguarnera,
06-Dec-07 11:33 PM, #15
RE: Smoking vs. heart disease:,
Eskelian,
17-Dec-07 08:32 AM, #16
RE: Smoking vs. heart disease:,
Valguarnera,
17-Dec-07 08:22 PM #18
RE: Smoking vs. heart disease:,
Eskelian,
18-Dec-07 11:36 PM, #19
RE: Smoking vs. heart disease:,
Valguarnera,
19-Dec-07 10:35 PM, #22
How it adds up mathematically,
DurNominator,
17-Dec-07 05:18 PM, #17
RE: How it adds up mathematically,
Eskelian,
18-Dec-07 11:41 PM, #21
That article doesn't make much sense.,
Aodh,
29-Nov-07 11:31 PM, #5
RE: Violent media and violence.,
Valguarnera,
29-Nov-07 07:37 PM, #3
RE: Violent media and violence.,
Cerunnir,
29-Nov-07 08:01 PM, #4
RE: Violent media and violence.,
Daevryn,
30-Nov-07 10:26 AM, #6
RE: Violent media and violence.,
Linolaques,
02-Dec-07 11:57 AM, #7
While I agree with most...,
Dragomir,
18-Dec-07 11:24 PM, #20
You are misreading it,
DurNominator,
29-Nov-07 12:54 PM, #1
Another interpretation,
Rodriguez,
29-Nov-07 03:13 PM, #2
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