Subject: "How it adds up mathematically" Previous topic | Next topic
Printer-friendly copy Email this topic to a friend CF Website
Top Non-CF Discussion "What Does RL Stand For?" Topic #1575
Show all folders

DurNominatorMon 17-Dec-07 05:18 PM
Member since 08th Nov 2004
2018 posts
Click to send private message to this author Click to add this author to your buddy list
#1623, "How it adds up mathematically"


          

>"Cigarette smoking is the single most preventable cause of
>premature death in the United States. Each year, more than
>400,000 Americans die from cigarette smoking. In fact, one in
>every five deaths in the United States is smoking related."
>
>Well, that's amazing given that 25% of people in America
>smoke. So apparently if you die and you're a smoker, there's
>near 100% chance smoking is what killed you. Not a heart
>attack you would've had anyway, etc.

Let's assume that your both figures are correctly. 20% of the smoking deaths were due to smoking and 25% of Americans smoke. Let's count the corpses. S for smoker deaths, D is for non-smoker deaths. Let us assume that there are X americans, who without smoking have a chance of death that is Y. Let us assume that smoking increases the amount of deaths with a multiplier Z. T means total deaths. We have a statement, which claims that 20 % of American deaths are smoking-related. This means that

T = XY + F = 1.25*XY,

where F is deaths directly caused by smoking. In the study, we're going to have target groups that consist of smokers and non-smokers. For smoker deaths, we get:

S = 0.25*XYZ

For non-smoker deaths, we get

D = 0.75*XY

For total deaths, we get:

T = D + S = 1.25*XY

By placing D and S, we get

0.25*XYZ + 0.75*XY = 1.25*XY

By dividing both sides with XY and subtracting 0.75 from both sides, we get

0.25*Z = 0.5 => Z = 2.

This means that the risk of death as a smoker is twice the normal risk. Thus, 50% of the smoker deaths are smoking-related.

  

Alert | IP Printer Friendly copy | Reply | Reply with quote

HOT TopicFor Death Claw and Valg [View all] , Shadowmaster, Thu 29-Nov-07 09:20 AM
Reply RE: For Death Claw and Valg, Eskelian, 05-Dec-07 11:06 PM, #8
Reply Quick note:, Valguarnera, 06-Dec-07 08:04 AM, #9
     Reply RE: Quick note:, Eskelian, 06-Dec-07 08:45 AM, #10
          Reply Its not just heart disease either., Eskelian, 06-Dec-07 09:12 AM, #11
          Reply RE: Quick note:, Elerosse, 06-Dec-07 10:33 AM, #12
          Reply RE: Quick note:, Eskelian, 06-Dec-07 11:38 AM, #13
               Reply RE: Quick note:, Elerosse, 06-Dec-07 12:42 PM, #14
          Reply RE: Smoking vs. heart disease:, Valguarnera, 06-Dec-07 11:33 PM, #15
          Reply RE: Smoking vs. heart disease:, Eskelian, 17-Dec-07 08:32 AM, #16
               Reply RE: Smoking vs. heart disease:, Valguarnera, 17-Dec-07 08:22 PM, #18
                    Reply RE: Smoking vs. heart disease:, Eskelian, 18-Dec-07 11:36 PM, #19
                         Reply RE: Smoking vs. heart disease:, Valguarnera, 19-Dec-07 10:35 PM, #22
          Reply How it adds up mathematically, DurNominator, 17-Dec-07 05:18 PM #17
               Reply RE: How it adds up mathematically, Eskelian, 18-Dec-07 11:41 PM, #21
Reply That article doesn't make much sense., Aodh, 29-Nov-07 11:31 PM, #5
Reply RE: Violent media and violence., Valguarnera, 29-Nov-07 07:37 PM, #3
Reply RE: Violent media and violence., Cerunnir, 29-Nov-07 08:01 PM, #4
Reply RE: Violent media and violence., Daevryn, 30-Nov-07 10:26 AM, #6
     Reply RE: Violent media and violence., Linolaques, 02-Dec-07 11:57 AM, #7
     Reply While I agree with most..., Dragomir, 18-Dec-07 11:24 PM, #20
Reply You are misreading it, DurNominator, 29-Nov-07 12:54 PM, #1
     Reply Another interpretation, Rodriguez, 29-Nov-07 03:13 PM, #2
Top Non-CF Discussion "What Does RL Stand For?" Topic #1575 Previous topic | Next topic