Valg will say "Observer Bias" but my question is this.

Statistically do you have a greater chance of fleeing in the direction you just came from than in another direction.

For me the answer seems to be a resounding yes.

Is their some snippet of code burried in the game that does this? Perhaps from back when people could flee past guild guards?

The game loops through a certain number of tries. Each try it grabs a random door and checks to see if you can flee. If it runs out of tries you Panic!

Low morale influences this, right? It appears I PANIC more when morale is really low.

Hutto, the Sleepy Nitpicker


'Sorry, I'm not 72323slhlst. Or however you say Elite'
-Vynmylak

That's kinda inefficient. :)

At least part of the time and in the opposite direction from when you came?

n/t

I think this is another case where there IS something in the code that you guys are missing.

Anyone else notice this flee in the same direction trend?

valguarnera@carrionfields.com

gr

You think of only the times it happens and not when it doesn't. For example, you think of all the bad times, but its harder to remember the good times.

What's more, think back to all the times you hear people franticly trying to flee but keep hearing the mobs yelling.

There's more to it than "No".

What's more you were trolled above by the liar.

>What's more, think back to all the times you hear people
>frantically trying to flee but keep hearing the mobs yelling.

Uh, by sheer definition of what you're using as you're argument, if they flee the RIGHT way, then they're going to walk off in the direction they want to go, and the mob won't be yelling at all. So that gives you ABSOLUTELY nothing to compare how many times you can think about random poor sap who tried 14 times to flee past a mob and went the wrong way, versus the absolutely uncounted times people have succeeded. Not to mention the additional situations where perhaps I'm on the wrong side of the Watcher/Executioner/(insert other mob), and you hear it yelling all the time because I have two wrong ways I can flee, and only one way I WANT to go.

Honestly, 90% of the population really needs to take basic logic courses before trying to argue ANYTHING, much less stats. If you don't believe the people who write the code for the game, how hard is it to roll up a char, and flee from some random mob about 1,000 times or so, and then look at the numbers? Honestly any numbers less than at LEAST 500 or so are so susceptible to variance that it's pretty pointless considering those test samples.

If you don't believe the people who write the code for the game, how hard is it to roll up a char, and flee from some random mob about 1,000 times or so, and then look at the numbers? Honestly any numbers less than at LEAST 500 or so are so susceptible to variance that it's pretty pointless considering those test samples.

I noticed that the Teach The Controversy people lack a good math shirt, but it's hard to draw a good visual contrasting statistics and fuzzy memories.

For what it's worth, the 'flee' code has no idea what room your character was in before the current one. Zulg's explanation above is mechanically how it proceeds.

And thank you for already covering the confirmation bias inherent to the 'they yelled' test.

The plural of anecdote is not 'data'.

valguarnera@carrionfields.com

With a perfect setup by Lhydia. Well done all. Well done.

My experience is that you tend to flee back in the direction you came more often than in any direction.

Am I saying If you have 4 directions to flee you'll flee back in the direction you came more than the other three combined? No.

Am I saying that in a random sampling that one direction seems to come up more? Yes.

As for Straklaw, I have rolled up a character and fled 1,000 times. In fact, I've fled 100,000 times.

I seem recall this point comming up before and someone mentioned the Guildguards once being passible and something was put in the code to make it harder for people to flee pass them. I can't help but wonder of it's burried in there.

Something else to consider Zulg prings up the "Panic!" text. How often do we see at Outers...

PANIC! You couldn't escape!

PANIC! You couldn't escape!

PANIC! You couldn't escape!

PANIC! You couldn't escape!

PANIC! You couldn't escape!

That's a place with 2 available options to flee.

Let's say I'm right, (Let's just say) and you have a 66% Chance of fleeing back the way you just came.

You type flee and damn it all! You roll that 33% that makes you want to run toward the Outer.

Another roll is made, but since you just tried to go......

Nevermind, I just defeated my own argument.

Meaning that trying to flee in that direction leads to a failure. So generally, it is easier to flee into the direction you came from, since there generally isn't a closed door in that direction. Also, you're also more likely to flee to the direction you came from in the rooms that have one exit since it is the only option. Furthermore, it is more memorable to fail fleeing past guard than succeeding to flee past guard.

The direction you came from isn't more likely than any otehr direction to flee to. However, the things I've listed are the ones that might have affected your perception so that it seems to you that the direction you've came from is more probable to flee back to.