>How long are you supposed to beat your head against a wall
>trying random things before deciding that "oh this skill must
>just have a large luck component?" Or are we not supposed to
>care if our skills work? Maybe "just play the game" means
>ignore the actual mechanics and do what makes sense to you
>even though it might be the exact opposite of what works.

You shouldn't even beat your head against the wall in the first place. Everything has a large luck component. Most combat skills work X% of your skill, and that's all there is to it. A decent number of others factor in one of your stats and/or one of your enemy's stats.

Other factors usually involve other skills. For example, if I have sure footing that can help me when someone tries to bash me.

Honestly I'm not sure what you want, except to bitch.