Even with pretty strong support from the Christian right, Bush only barely got elected. Now imagine a pro-choice Republican candidate, and consider that (some) among his supporters actually feel like Bush burned them by not being socially conservative enough. Also consider that the Constitution Party has sort of positioned itself as the conservative version of the Greens. In the past, those who were too far right for mainstream Republicanism didn't really have an attractive alternative. Libertarianism, but it's too secular. Now they (arguably) do. I don't think the Constitution Party will get any significant number of votes, but if they get even 2% in a place like Ohio that would be a huge blow to the Republicans.

And I wouldn't underestimate how important the abortion is to many people. There are folks who won't even vote for a candidate in a city council election if he's pro-choice. You think they're going to vote for Giuliani because he's just such a charismatic guy?

Giuliani's only hope would be to win New York and pick up a ton of fence-sitters. But I just don't see that happening.

We'll find out in 2 years!