http://forums.carrionfields.com/dc/dcboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=31&topic_id=55947&mesg_id=55952&page=1

Quintalius started at 229. I started at 204.

Quintalius was not a leader. I was.

We both had perfect spells.

Quintalius had a base chance of 70.

By contrast - Cerybis began the quest at 58 hours, was not a leader, did not have perfect spells - had a 33 base chance.

Neferefre began at 185 hours, was not a leader, base chance 60.

Zalgordrax began at 165 hours, was not a leader, base chance 58.

My base chance was 20. Let that sink in a bit.

240 is not a magical number. People used that number because that is when Twist handed in the quest for Tavlin (*), but we got that wrong too because base chance is not when you hand it in but when you accept the quest.

* and obviously with access to the code behind the mummy quest Twist would maximise his chances